← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 39% | 41% | 2.51 | value: +4% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 35% | 35% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Finn Stokkers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 12 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1063.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1491.81 | 1469.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.52 | 27.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.33 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.11 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.35 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |