← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 33% | 30% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.66 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 21' | ⚽ | Luka Ilić · NAC Breda |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 29' | 🟨 | Anouar Kali · NAC Breda |
| 60' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 94.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1407.94 | 1542.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.62 | 13.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.73 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| league points | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -1.11 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |