← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 90% | 88% | 1.07 | fair |
| Draw | 7% | 9% | 13.10 | value: +19% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 3% | 3% | 33.81 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 22' | ⚽ | Frenkie de Jong · AFC Ajax |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 306.00 | 94.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 4.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1846.55 | 1478.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.34 | -14.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.86 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.97 | 0.68 |
| league points | 25.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.88 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.70 | — |
| state index | 1.71 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |