← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Nov 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 36% | 33% | 2.66 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 36% | 38% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.56 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 29' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 36' | ⚽ | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 42' | 🟨 | Anouar Hadouir · SBV Excelsior |
| 51' | ⚽ | Mateo Cassierra · FC Groningen |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jannik Pohl · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 823.00 | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1449.89 | 1473.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.84 | -32.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.65 |
| league points | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |