← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 40% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 31% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 40' | 🟨 | Pol Llonch · Willem II Tilburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Diego Palacios · Willem II Tilburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nick Venema · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 0 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.52 | 3.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1486.73 | 1597.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.99 | -6.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.42 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |