← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 64% | 65% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.69 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 15% | 14% | 6.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 45' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Fortuna Sittard |
| 50' | 🟨 | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 60' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 66' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 68' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 69' | 🟨 | Clint Essers · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 210.00 | 1056.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1574.37 | 1359.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.84 | 35.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 7.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 25.87 | 23.32 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |