← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 61% | 67% | 1.57 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.71 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 18% | 13% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Thomas Ouwejan · AZ |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 30' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 68' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · SC Heerenveen |
| 79' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 84' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1518.00 | 879.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1650.95 | 1502.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.44 | -7.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.53 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.99 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |