← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 43% | 45% | 2.25 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 17' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 20' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 33' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 73' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 79' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 513.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1469.47 | 1543.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.52 | 30.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.74 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.31 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |