β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sat, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 53% | 57% | 1.82 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 22% | 20% | 4.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | β½ | Luka IliΔ Β· NAC Breda |
| 17' | β½ | Abdenasser El Khayati Β· ADO Den Haag |
| 21' | π¨ | Gianluca Nijholt Β· NAC Breda |
| 81' | π¨ | Menno Koch Β· NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1729.00 | 87.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.75 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1500.59 | 1403.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.15 | -31.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.47 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |