← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 40% | 36% | 2.44 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 32% | 29% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.44 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 35' | ⚽ | Thomas Meissner · Willem II Tilburg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Willem II Tilburg |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikhael Rosheuvel · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| 4.40 |
| coach days | 81.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 4.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1403.01 | 1487.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.11 | -11.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |