← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 46% | 48% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 25' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 46' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Django Warmerdam · FC Groningen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 112.00 | 142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1530.79 | 1487.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.82 | -35.30 |
| eye test v1 | 1.63 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.45 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.48 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |