← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 70% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 19% | 6.67 | value: +25% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 10% | 11% | 9.15 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 44' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 50' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 56' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 71' | 🟨 | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 871.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1509.16 | 1831.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.74 | 14.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.74 | 1.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.93 |
| league points | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.00 | 1.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.54 |
| state index | -0.09 | 1.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |