← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 50% | 50% | 1.94 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 25% | 24% | 3.82 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ (og) | Max Clark · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sonny Stevens · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 24 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 13 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 810.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1452.08 | 1572.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.38 | 10.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.14 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.58 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.94 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |