← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 55% | 61% | 1.76 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.19 | fair |
| Heracles win | 22% | 17% | 4.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 42' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 44' | 🟨 | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jake Clarke-Salter · Vitesse |
| 66' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 189.00 | 98.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1557.86 | 1545.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.92 | 28.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 1.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.90 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |