← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 51% | 49% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 23% | 25% | 4.25 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 23' | ⚽ | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 54' | 🟨 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 55' | ⚽ | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 60' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Burnet · SBV Excelsior |
| 63' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 492.00 | 796.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1462.63 | 1464.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.14 | 10.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |