← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Oct 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 43% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.51 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 27% | 29% | 3.57 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 86' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1708.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1509.14 | 1495.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.05 | -18.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| league points | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.56 | — |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.95 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |