← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 63% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 3.99 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 13% | 21% | 7.35 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 49' | ⚽ | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 55' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 65' | ⚽ | Mikhael Rosheuvel · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 34.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1583.19 | 1407.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.37 | -49.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |