← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 40% | 39% | 2.44 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 33% | 35% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nicolas Gavory · FC Utrecht |
| 33' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 66' | 🟥 | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Timo Letschert · FC Utrecht |
| 76' | ⚽ | Ahmad Mendes Moreira · FC Groningen |
| 83' | 🟨 | Mark van der Maarel · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 121.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1494.93 | 1584.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.06 | -21.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.13 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |