← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 44% | 50% | 2.21 | value: +11% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 30% | 27% | 3.28 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 36' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 53' | 🟨 | Tomáš Necid · ADO Den Haag |
| 65' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 850.00 | 1701.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1492.87 | 1507.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.74 | 13.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.83 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |