← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 80% | 80% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 7.98 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 8% | 8% | 12.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 49' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wessel Dammers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jorrit Smeets · Fortuna Sittard |
| 73' | 🟨 | Lasse Schöne · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1027.00 | 271.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | — | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1342.30 | 1838.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.81 | 5.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 1.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.77 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.84 |
| league points | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 8.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 23.46 | 25.44 |
| state index | -0.62 | 1.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |