← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 48% | 40% | 2.02 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 27% | 36% | 3.54 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jannik Pohl · FC Groningen |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jeff Chabot · FC Groningen |
| 27' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟥 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 76' | ⚽ | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 77' | 🟥 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 77' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 87' | 🟨 | Thomas Ouwejan · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adam Maher · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 114.00 | 1483.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1505.70 | 1666.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.43 | 0.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | -0.90 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 56.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.22 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | 1.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |