← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 63% | 57% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 29% | 4.48 | value: +29% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 16% | 14% | 6.12 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 58' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 65' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 75' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟥 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 174.00 | 1694.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1566.08 | 1504.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.12 | -1.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.55 |
| league points | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |