← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 41% | 41% | 2.37 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 30% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.77 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 27' | 🟨 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 42' | ⚽ | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 49' | ⚽ | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 59' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jizz Hornkamp · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 782.00 | 843.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1457.73 | 1492.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.67 | -20.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| league points | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | 0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |