← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 43% | 47% | 2.26 | value: +7% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 31% | 28% | 3.07 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 20' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 26' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 29' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 44' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 78' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 472.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1473.62 | 1572.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.19 | 1.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.70 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 22.76 | 27.55 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |