β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 39% | 43% | 2.48 | value: +7% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 33% | 33% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.53 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | β½ | Mitchell Te Vrede Β· NAC Breda |
| 41' | β½ | Ahmed El Messaoudi Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 53' | β½ | Ahmed El Messaoudi Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 67' | π¨ | Mitchell Te Vrede Β· NAC Breda |
| 70' | π¨ | Wessel Dammers Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 71' | β½ | Gervane Kastaneer Β· NAC Breda |
| 77' | π¨ | Anouar Kali Β· NAC Breda |
| 81' | β½ | Branislav NiΕaj Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 88' | π¨ | Marco Ospitalieri Β· Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | β |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 46.00 | 1014.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | β |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | β |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | β |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | β |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | β |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | β |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | β |
| elo | 1451.88 | 1324.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.96 | 8.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | β |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 68.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 55.33 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | β |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | β |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | β |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| squad age | 25.06 | 23.98 |
| state index | -0.55 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | β |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |