← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 51% | 55% | 1.90 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
| Heracles win | 23% | 20% | 4.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 48' | ⚽ | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 66' | 🟨 | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 67' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 72' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 837.00 | 77.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1509.58 | 1512.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.92 | 29.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | 0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.98 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.40 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |