← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 63% | 52% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 30% | 4.65 | value: +38% |
| Vitesse win | 16% | 19% | 5.87 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 7' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 14' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 19' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 22' | 🟨 | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 42' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 58' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 154.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1581.66 | 1838.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.72 | 9.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 2.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.69 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| league points | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 19.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 8.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.80 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 24.12 |
| state index | 0.32 | 1.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |