← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 55% | 62% | 1.78 | value: +11% |
| Heracles win | 23% | 19% | 4.25 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 12' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 21' | ⚽ | Mohammed Osman · Heracles |
| 23' | 🟨 | Guus Til · AZ |
| 46' | 🟨 | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 50' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 60' | ⚽ | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alexander Merkel · Heracles |
| 85' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · AZ |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Silvester van der Water · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 17 |
| 14 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 63.00 | 1462.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1498.97 | 1680.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.53 | 3.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 1.95 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 1.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.60 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |