← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Sep 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 51% | 49% | 1.92 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 26% | 30% | 3.77 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Denis Genreau · PEC Zwolle |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
| 52' | 🟨 | Rick Dekker · PEC Zwolle |
| 64' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 70' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mimoun Mahi · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 93.00 | 458.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1523.15 | 1442.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.20 | -39.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| league points | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.17 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |