β Eredivisie 2018-19 Β· Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 48% | 47% | 2.03 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 27% | 30% | 3.56 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | β½ | Urby Emanuelson Β· FC Utrecht |
| 74' | β½ | Andrija Novakovich Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 87' | π¨ | Branislav NiΕaj Β· Fortuna Sittard |
| 87' | π¨ | Wessel Dammers Β· Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | β | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 999.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | β | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | β | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | β | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | β | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | β | 4.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | β | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | β | 0.53 |
| elo | 1318.16 | 1625.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.39 | -4.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | β | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | β | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | β | 0.61 |
| league points | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 53.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | β | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | β | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | β | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.50 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.62 | 25.02 |
| state index | -1.16 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | β | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |