← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Sep 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Blom, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 38% | 29% | 2.53 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 35% | 43% | 2.80 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 25' | 🟨 | Elson Hooi · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 47' | 🟨 | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 54' | 🟨 | Mikael Anderson · SBV Excelsior |
| 65' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 69' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 70' | ⚽ | Mikael Anderson · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | ⚽ | Denis Mahmudov · SBV Excelsior |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 761.00 | 1673.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1471.47 | 1495.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.32 | 6.08 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |