← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 44% | 40% | 2.21 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.74 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Willem II Tilburg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Donis Avdijaj · Willem II Tilburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Donis Avdijaj · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | 🟨 | Wout Droste · Heracles |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
| 58' | 🟨 | Pol Llonch · Willem II Tilburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Fran Sol · Willem II Tilburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 25.00 | 56.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1480.37 | 1517.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.28 | 38.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.67 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.48 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |