← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 54% | 58% | 1.79 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.24 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 23% | 21% | 4.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 34' | 🟨 | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 39' | 🟨 | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thulani Serero · Vitesse |
| 43' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1455.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1702.68 | 1576.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.74 | 0.32 |
| eye test v1 | 1.99 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.30 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.91 | 27.69 |
| state index | 1.30 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |