← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 49% | 41% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.73 | value: +15% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 26% | 28% | 3.79 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
| 13' | 🟨 | Gianluca Nijholt · NAC Breda |
| 15' | ⚽ | Ali Messaoud · SBV Excelsior |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 63' | 🟨 | Ivan Ilić · NAC Breda |
| 68' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.58 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 24.00 | 754.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1456.81 | 1453.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.80 | -24.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |