← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 21% | 3.57 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 23% | 26% | 4.15 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Melvyn Lorenzen · ADO Den Haag |
| 26' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 55' | ⚽ | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 58' | 🟨 | Melvyn Lorenzen · ADO Den Haag |
| 72' | 🟨 | Wessel Dammers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 76' | 🟨 | Thijmen Goppel · ADO Den Haag |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lisandro Semedo · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | — |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1665.00 | 991.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | — |
| elo | 1482.09 | 1497.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.33 | — |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | — |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | — |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | — |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | — |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | — |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | — |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | — |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | — |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | — |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | — |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | — |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | — |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | — |