← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.74 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 22% | 22% | 4.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Joris van Overeem · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | ⚽ | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 66' | 🟥 | Joris van Overeem · FC Utrecht |
| 73' | 🟨 | Sean Klaiber · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 229.00 | 444.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.36 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1605.81 | 1451.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.31 | -48.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.13 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |