← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 36% | 45% | 2.67 | value: +19% |
| Vitesse win | 36% | 29% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Michel Vlap · SC Heerenveen |
| 40' | 🟨 | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nemanja Mihajlović · SC Heerenveen |
| 64' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 81' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 809.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1522.61 | 1556.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.35 | 0.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 2.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.83 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |