← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 79% | 78% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 7.00 | value: +5% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 7% | 7% | 13.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jeremiah St. Juste · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jan-Arie van der Heijden · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1206.00 | 748.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1672.28 | 1459.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -44.00 | -16.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 2.81 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.14 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.84 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |