← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 26% | 24% | 3.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.09 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 7' | ⚽ | Bart van Hintum · Heracles |
| 12' | ⚽ | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 38' | 🟨 | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 38' | ⚽ (og) | Tim Breukers · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 71' | 🟨 | Alexander Merkel · Heracles |
| 73' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
| 80' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Melvyn Lorenzen · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days | 48.00 | 1659.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.07 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1505.72 | 1494.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.88 | -0.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |