← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 51% | 60% | 1.90 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.64 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 22% | 15% | 4.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 44' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 62' | ⚽ | Roy Beerens · Vitesse |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jake Clarke-Salter · Vitesse |
| 71' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 133.00 | 72.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1550.82 | 1543.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.15 | 32.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 2.83 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.05 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |