← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 73% | 70% | 1.34 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 19% | 5.91 | value: +15% |
| NAC Breda win | 11% | 10% | 8.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Jonas Svensson · AZ |
| 30' | ⚽ | Pantelis Hatzidiakos · AZ |
| 42' | ⚽ | Myron Boadu · AZ |
| 58' | 🟨 | Mounir El Allouchi · NAC Breda |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fabian Sporkslede · NAC Breda |
| 79' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 85' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 5 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1441.00 | 11.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1666.39 | 1450.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.23 | 10.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.83 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 9.80 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | 0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |