← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 41% | 52% | 2.35 | value: +22% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 31% | 25% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand