← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 41% | 52% | 2.35 | value: +22% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 31% | 25% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jorrit Smeets · Fortuna Sittard |
| 57' | 🟥 | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 740.00 | 978.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | — |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | — |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | — |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | — |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | — |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | — |
| elo | 1478.03 | 1319.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | 7.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | — |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | — |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | — |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | — |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | — |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | — |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | — |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | — |
| squad age | 27.64 | — |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | — |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | — |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | — |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |