← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Aug 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 85% | 87% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 9% | 9.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 5% | 5% | 20.82 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 65' | 🟨 | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robin Pröpper · Heracles |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 88' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 25 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 222.00 | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1817.82 | 1497.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.82 | 4.89 |
| eye test v1 | 2.11 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -12.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.79 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 10.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 21.51 | — |
| state index | 1.44 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |