← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Aug 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 40% | 45% | 2.43 | value: +9% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 33% | 33% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.58 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Kik Pierie · SC Heerenveen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 29' | 🟨 | Dave Bulthuis · SC Heerenveen |
| 32' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 39' | ⚽ | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 43' | ⚽ | Arbër Zeneli · SC Heerenveen |
| 55' | 🟥 | Morten Thorsby · SC Heerenveen |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 63' | 🟨 | Daniel Høegh · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darryl Lachman · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mike van Duinen · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sam Lammers · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 18 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| coach days | 435.00 | 800.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1461.50 | 1512.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -50.10 | -2.76 |
| eye test v1 | 0.91 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.51 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.91 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |