← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 40% | 39% | 2.43 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 36% | 30% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.00 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
| 39' | ⚽ | George Dylan · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| coach days | 217.00 | 948.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1415.67 | 1449.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.35 | 7.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| league points | 23.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |