← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Heracles win | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.25 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Fred Friday · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 26' | ⚽ | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 55' | 🟨 | Ryan Sanusi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 59' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 61' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
| 62' | 🟨 | Miquel Nelom · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 78' | ⚽ | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · Heracles |
| 90' | ⚽ | Vincent Vermeij · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.22 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Het Kasteel |
| coach days |
| 125.00 |
| 1374.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1378.76 | 1482.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.02 | -22.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | -0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | -0.73 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.43 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |