← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag win | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
| Roda JC win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 34' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · ADO Den Haag |
| 56' | ⚽ | Dani Schahin · Roda JC |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · Roda JC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aaron Meijers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 23 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Roda JC | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | Parkstad Limburg |
| coach days |
| 339.00 |
| 1555.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1425.90 | 1496.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 64.47 | -5.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |