← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 43% | 35% | 2.26 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 33% | 30% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 35% | 3.96 | value: +39% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 704.00 |
| 1101.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1518.50 | 1719.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.15 | 36.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.80 |
| league points | 46.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 1.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.28 | 1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 1.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |