← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 72% | 81% | 1.33 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 16% | 11% | 5.90 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 11% | 8% | 8.62 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ (og) | Matthijs de Ligt · SBV Excelsior |
| 48' | ⚽ | Justin Kluivert · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 23 |
| 5 | On target | 13 |
| 8 | Corners | 11 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days |
| 643.00 |
| 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1463.55 | 1814.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.10 | 4.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 1.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.75 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 40.00 | 76.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 20.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.80 |
| squad age | — | 21.47 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |