← Eredivisie 2017-18 · Sun, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 64% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 19% | 5.13 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 18% | 23% | 5.54 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dirk Marcellis · PEC Zwolle |
| 52' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 62' | ⚽ | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 76' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 77' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AZ |
| 88' | ⚽ | Alireza Jahanbakhsh · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 13 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1343.00 |
| 339.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1669.90 | 1469.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.60 | -34.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.46 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 68.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.12 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| state index | 0.68 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |